Trade Review and Tips for Trading the British Pound

The test of the 1.3428 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the pound. However, the pair has not yet delivered any significant upward movement.

Next, we await the first U.S. inflation data releases. Figures are expected for the March Consumer Price Index (CPI), the core CPI excluding food and energy, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, and inflation expectations. These indicators will serve as key benchmarks for the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. Given the tense geopolitical environment and its potential impact on energy prices, market participants will closely analyze any deviations from forecasts. Core inflation data will be particularly important, as it more accurately reflects long-term inflation trends by excluding volatile components like food and fuel. The University of Michigan sentiment index, along with inflation expectations, will show how Americans perceive the current economic situation and their outlook for future spending.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy the pound today upon reaching the entry point around 1.3449 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.3485 (thicker green line). Around 1.3485, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move). Today's pound growth can be expected within a bullish market.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3425 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward 1.3449 and 1.3485 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the pound after a break below 1.3425 (red line on the chart), which would likely lead to a quick decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.3392, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pound will return today if U.S. data comes in strong.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3449 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.3425 and 1.3392 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.