Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

Due to reduced volatility, there were no tests of the levels I had identified during the first half of the day.

Next, we await the first U.S. inflation data following the outbreak of the geopolitical conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. Inflation indicators will serve as key benchmarks for the Federal Reserve's future policy decisions. Particular importance is placed on the core inflation figure, as it more accurately reflects stable inflation trends while minimizing the impact of fuel price fluctuations. March's Consumer Price Index is expected to show the sharpest acceleration in growth since 2022, though it is likely to remain within economists' forecasts. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, along with inflation expectations, will help assess how U.S. citizens perceive the current economic situation and their future spending. If long-term inflation expectations begin to rise—as is likely given fuel prices—this could influence consumer behavior and, consequently, future economic growth.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 159.38 (green line on the chart), with a target of 159.69 (thicker green line). Around 159.69, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move). Growth in the pair today can be expected if U.S. data comes in strong.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.20 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward 159.38 and 159.69 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break below 159.20 (red line on the chart), which would likely lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 158.78, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair may return at any moment today.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY if there are two consecutive tests of the 159.38 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 159.20 and 158.78 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further growth above is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or area to lock in profits, as further decline below is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decision-making based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.